This fine post by Maria Chikina (Pitt) and Wesley Pegden (CMU) reaches important if unpalatable conclusions, including: “There is a simple truth behind the problems with these modeling conclusions. The ...

My oped on covid 19 that the FT has just kindly published, emphasizes we are operating in a fog — of irreducible, radical uncertainty. As Mervyn King wisely put it. ” “No one can really know the nature ...

My email and facebook feed is filled with pictures and videos of exponential growth functions.   The flood originates, I believe, in epidemiological hubris, namely that:   1. The form of equation governing ...

A pro-screening friend posed this question — in response to my strong objections to mass screening. To which I replied: “It depends on the purpose, costs and the consequences. Testing witches by tying ...

Comparisons of coronavirus infections to the mundane seasonal ‘flu have invited widespread mockery. In fact, the comparison is oddly and usefully apt. Estimates of infection and death rates –for both – require ...