Doubling Down on AI-skepticism
This oped is a second salvo fired at the prevailing AI mania. In the first I had attacked its magical
Read MoreNot taking a Victory Lap
There is a fine interview with Gene Fama in the FT today which concludes thus:“I wonder why he doesn’t simply
Read MoreDust Jacket for Uncertainty and Enterprise
Now (Aug 1 2024) Finalized
Read MoreImagination and Free Will
A distinguished speaker at a Riksbank event in Stockholm kindly cited something in my forthcoming book about the relationship between
Read More(More) Skeptical Remarks about AI
I made the remarks below to a CEO forum on June 21 2024. Generally the AI enthusiasts were over the
Read MoreThe New Emperor’s Old Clothes (Project Syndicate op-ed)
My Skeptical View of the AI Frenzy After nearly two years of focusing on book writing, I returned to an
Read MoreFirst book blurb (from one of my heroes)
Just received this email from one of my heroes. A good man and true. (America missed out on his service,
Read MoreBook Cover and Title Done.
After driving myself and many friends crazy, I’ve finally converged on a book title and cover.OK, so it’s not War
Read MoreRIP Dear D..
An Instagram posting on Dorian Allworthy suggested bad news. https://www.instagram.com/p/Cz4QRGDgATc/?img_index=1 And she hadn’t posted on Facebook for a long time.
Read MoreWindowless Office to Windowless Office.
I got my “post-retirement” office and ID yesterday (Feb 2). The office is small and windowless. No matter. I would
Read MoreFailed and Bailed by Technology (with expert human assistance)
A Republic of Letters (emails now, actually) correspondent who had kindly read early drafts of my manuscript on uncertainty had
Read MoreDraft of Uncertainty, Judgment, and Enterprise complete!
And here’s the link for anyone who wants to look. Comments welcome! Please email amar AT Bhide dot Net /
Read MoreWhose company? Whose oversight?
https://www.wsj.com/business/elon-musk-spacex-loan-269a2168 The WSJ story is interesting. Some WSJ reader comments even more so. They defend Musk on three grounds: On
Read MoreWill frivolity sustain the development of the new AI?
Google’s Bard has been rather a disappointment for me so far. Several days after promising to try to edit my
Read MorePart One of forthcoming book Posted on SSRN
Ive been hacking away — for way too long — on a new book, Uncertainty, Justification, and Enterprise: Renewing Knights
Read MoreToo good to be true? Adventures in ChatGPT-land
For decades I have been unimpressed by AI hype. (I had a boss at McKinsey in the early 1980s who
Read MoreReading/Listening Lists for millennials
A student in my entrepreneurship class — a millennial naturally –asked for general reading suggestions. I sent the following email
Read MoreMy nutty nut-free diet
And NOT by any means a recommendation In April 2015 I had dinner with an old friend in Paris, who
Read MoreThe “fact” of rain
Social Agreement v. objective facts/information Professor Reed writes on his blog. “Facts are independently testable and verifiable, with truth independent
Read MoreThe dangers of dismantling local zoning rules
Well said Joel Kotkin! Zoning rules have become a target in many libertarian circles. Joel Kotkin who I believe is
Read MoreMy mother and her friends started the Association 50 years ago
Being very proud son of extraordinary parents, I have endowed a scholarship in their name. Modest sums go a long
Read MoreThe Selective Sovietization of American Capitalism
Project Syndicate Op-ed This oped, just published in Project Syndicate memorializes Janos Kornai. I never met Janos but we published
Read MoreEntrepreneurial Specialization: How Subjective (“Knightian”) Uncertainty Matters
Hayek Seminar Talk at LSE 2 Dec ’21 Tim Besley, John Kay, and Mervyn King organize a Hayek Seminar at
Read MoreHow the orthodoxy in academic and policy macroeconomics has changed.
Per Larry Summers (quoted in Robert Armstrong’s FT piece) “The first edition of Paul Samuelson’s textbook [Economics from 1948]
Read MoreKabul on the Charles
The day Kabul fell I found myself at a Peet’s in Harvard Square. I had an inkling the barista might
Read MoreGood things come from those who hustle
Today’s Wall Street Journal has an interview with a U Penn historian, whose image of the Founding Fathers is similar
Read MoreSunlighting Knightian Uncertainty/ Commemorating McArthur (New Working Paper)
This is my last month at HBS and I thought I’d squeeze in one last working paper, Renewing Knightian Uncertainty
Read MoreCelebrating Richard “Dick” Nelson
Gave me joy to write this nomination In nominating Richard Nelson, I feel both honored and nervous. He has secured
Read MoreCapitalism Won’t Thrive on Value Investing Alone (just published HBR.org oped)
First oped in more than a year (when I was maniacally trying to get my medical innovation course done… Trigger
Read MoreCourse Evaluations did not disappoint
The new course on medical innovations I developed and just taught at HBS started disastrously. Fortunately, miraculously, by the end
Read More‘Tis done!
Done with my LTMA course. Good or bad, is for my students to say in their evaluations but it was
Read MoreCase Teaching Highs
In less than nine months, I’ve put 15 case studies through the HBS system, which may be a record for
Read MoreShorter Simplified version
Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics
has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified
through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical utility of the discipline because universal
propositions form only a part of new policy recipes. I further suggest that, as in engineering and
medicine, developing economic recipes requires eclectic combinations of suggestive tests and
judgement. Additionally, I offer a detailed example of how a simulation model can help evaluate
new policy combinations that affect the screening of loan applications.
May or may not help, but can’t hurt.
Long ago, when I had a persistent cold, my father had taught me the yogic practice of ‘jala neti.’ So
Read MoreBob Aliber remembers George Schultz
The venerable sage, Bob Aliber (and co-author of Manias, Panics, and Crashes), sent along this fine memory of the late,
Read MoreProductive Knowledge and the Social Sciences — Some Pragmatic Ruminations
The most that ‘scientific consensus’ can realistically expect is some kind of ‘abductive’ generalization: the “best” explanation for the widest possible phenomena. And I’m skeptical that without intellectual bullying such a consensus is possible…. The alternative ‘pragmatic’ enterprise (in the William James sense) looks for whats useful rather than what’s universally true. …social scientists have something to bring to the pragmatist’s table: more suggestive tools and heuristics for their selection and use. It would be a pity if this were lost in a dogmatic striving for the “best” model and approach
Read MoreSyllabus for Transformational Medical Innovations Course Finally Completed
The course seeks to encourage and guide innovators in health care and other industries using case-histories of transformational advances, supported
Read MoreThe Plague in Pepys’s London
Email from a distinguished, very thoughtful, and classically educated, pillar of the UK establishment concludes: “Meanwhile I send you our
Read MoreUplifting News to End a Dismal Year
E, a Latina immigrant and single mother, who tidies my (bijou) apartment just heard her son was admitted to Harvard
Read MoreNew paper on Anonymous Lemons
European Financial Managment has just published ‘Symmetrical Ignorance: The Cost of Anonymous Lemons.’ It’s (kind of) a 50th Anniversary ‘inversion’
Read MoreTo what end Heterodoxy? (Hayek Seminar at LSE)
I’m privileged to participate in a seminar (with far more distinguished scholars than I) with diverse views and research agendas
Read More“Commercial” for HBS Spring 2021 Elective
The more formal description is on the HBS elective course catalog
Read MoreGrowing scholarships offered by the Indian Women Scientists Association.
Good to see their scholarships for “girl students” in science (;-)) keeps growing. I gave one in my parent’s name
Read MoreSpeculations and Near Certainties about Covid’s consequences
Trimmed and anonymized talk given to a group in London (whose identity has been edited out). Ive also removed the
Read MoreConfronting our inhumanity
I regard death from disease, storms, earthquakes, accidents, and misadventures as an integral part of the natural order. Certainly sad
Read MoreImpossible Shoes, difficult timing
From the May 14 2020 Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Board announcement: “Professor John Kay has decided not to stand for
Read MoreHustling to beat the Coronavirus (with Leif Pagrotsky)
Our article (full text below) highlights the crucial role of local knowledge and action in global pandemics. While regretting the
Read MoreHindu/Vedantic views on life and death (rather personal!)
An oped in today’s WSJ about “Rage[ing] Against the ‘Bioethicists’ and the Dying of the Light” reminded me how different
Read MoreWhat South Korean/Taiwanese “successes” dont resolve.
Much is being made of the “success” of covid containment in South Korea and Taiwan. This seems based on rather
Read MoreHonesty in Pandemic Modelling
This fine post by Maria Chikina (Pitt) and Wesley Pegden (CMU) reaches important if unpalatable conclusions, including: “There is a
Read MoreMurky data calls into question quarantine strategy (New FT oped)
My oped on covid 19 that the FT has just kindly published, emphasizes we are operating in a fog —
Read MoreConflating Convenience with Correctness
My email and facebook feed is filled with pictures and videos of exponential growth functions. The flood originates, I
Read MoreHow reliable does a test need to be in order to be used for screening?
A pro-screening friend posed this question — in response to my strong objections to mass screening. To which I replied:
Read MoreWhat the seasonal flu teaches us about dealing with the coronavirus scare
Comparisons of coronavirus infections to the mundane seasonal ‘flu have invited widespread mockery. In fact, the comparison is oddly and
Read MoreFrank Knight’s spin on Hume’s induction paradox.
Brilliant observation from Knight’s Risk Uncertainty and Profit: “We live in a world full of contradiction and paradox, a fact
Read MoreMaking Economics More Useful. Final typeset version posted.
The compositor has sent the “final” version of Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help (though the official
Read MoreQuestions about the practical utility of Randomized Control Trials
I got a “revise and resubmit” for my paper on making economics more useful on the very day the Nobel
Read MoreJust completed case-history of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (CABG)
Srikant Datar, Fabio Villa, and I are happy (and relieved) to complete this case history on the evolution of coronary
Read MoreRe-reading Chandler’s Strategy and Structure
While preparing for for my practical knowledge seminar last week I saw something in Chandler that had been hiding in
Read MoreA Pragmatic Libertarian’s Angst about Immigration (Project Syndicate oped)
I am a staunch free-trader with strong but pragmatic libertarian leanings. I am also an immigrant (of “color” in the
Read MoreIn Praise of Market Volatility (WSJ Oped)
Talking heads on “financial” TV channels have always provided “infotainment” — information so blended with entertainment that you couldn’t tell
Read MoreThe Zero Percent solution (WSJ Oped + Tribute to Volcker)
Paul Volcker’s critique of 2% inflation targets in his recent memoir spurred me to write this oped just published in
Read MoreSkepticism as Antidote to Fake News (Wall Street Journal op-ed)
The WSJ op-ed reflects my ingrained First Amendment-absolutism: fake news will always be with us and any remedy is likely
Read MoreCorralling the Info-Monopolists (Project Syndicate Op-ed)
I am viscerally skeptical about expanding state power but recognize that technological advances do often require new rules: Automobiles required
Read MoreFormulaic Transparency: The Hidden Enabler of Exceptional US Securitization (New article in JACF)
This article in many ways, is the “debt” counterpart to my 1993 Journal of Financial Economics piece and offers an
Read MoreSeminar on Practical knowledge — manifesto-like syllabus
(Manifesto-like) Syllabus This seminar examines the development of knowledge embodied in artifacts (including physical objects, protocols, and organizations) intended to
Read MoreJust published essay on how public policies have harmed American banks
Number 34 • Winter 2018 Why We Need Traditional Banking Amar Bhidé
Read MoreEquifax Critics Are Missing the Bigger Point (Wall Street Journal op-ed)
Fair-lending laws turned consumers into anonymous credit scores—and a target for identity thieves. (Appeared in the September 14, 2017, print
Read MoreMaking Economics More Useful
My working paper just posted on SSRN synthesizes ideas Ive been working on for my practical knowledge seminar, a case
Read MoreBottoms up critique of top down monetary interventions
My article, just accepted by Ekonomisk Debatt, will be published after translation by the Swedish Economics Association in May. The
Read MoreLecture on medical innovation at ESBRI, Stockholm
http://www.esbri.se/forelasning_tv_visae.asp?id=180708882
Read MoreLecture on medical innovation at ESBRI, Stockholm
http://www.esbri.se/forelasning_tv_visae.asp?id=180708882
Read MoreLecture on medical innovation at ESBRI, Stockholm
http://www.esbri.se/forelasning_tv_visae.asp?id=180708882
Read MoreLecture on medical innovation at ESBRI, Stockholm
http://www.esbri.se/forelasning_tv_visae.asp?id=180708882
Read MoreLecture on medical innovation at ESBRI, Stockholm
http://www.esbri.se/forelasning_tv_visae.asp?id=180708882
Read MoreLecture on medical innovation at ESBRI, Stockholm
http://www.esbri.se/forelasning_tv_visae.asp?id=180708882
Read MoreWhat central bankers should and should not be asked to do
Amar Bhidé Financial Times August 16, 2016 Easy money is a dangerous cure for a debt hangover Central banks should
Read MoreYou cant dine in the clubhouse if you dont pay the dues
Amar Bhidé and Anders Barsk Quartz June 21, 2016 Brexiters are making a dangerous mistake in their argument for leaving
Read MoreAbroad, as at home, first do no harm
From Quartz January 7, 2015 When it comes to ISIL Europe is repeating the sins of its fathers While candidate
Read MoreGreece isn’t too poor or misgoverned for the Euro (oped)
Widespread private and public cheating in Greece is old hat. Michael Lewis documented it splendidly in Vanity Fair in 2010.
Read MoreTen Miles SquSupport for Free Speech Is Not Support for More Surveillance
A civil libertarian and free-speech absolutist’s concern about the Charlie Hedbo demonstrations By Amar Bhidé http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2015/01/restraint_is_called_for053846.php Mass demonstrations of solidarity
Read MoreThe dubious utility of productivity estimates.
Talk at Cato conference on the future of US growth
Read More