{"id":2254,"date":"2024-08-03T18:20:48","date_gmt":"2024-08-03T22:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/?page_id=2254"},"modified":"2025-06-24T17:08:31","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T21:08:31","slug":"uncertainty-and-enterprise","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/uncertainty-and-enterprise\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty and Enterprise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Why write this book?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For nearly forty years, I have struggled to reconcile the concrete phenomena I studied and taught about with the theories and methods of academic colleagues. Where I focused on specific entrepreneurs, financiers, and technological advances, colleagues examined what generally happened \u2013 describing and explaining \u2018distributions\u2019 rather than \u2018one-offs.\u2019<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Where I attended to human hopes, fears, and colorful discourse, scientifically-minded colleagues treated these as noise. Individual human agency and construction of meaning had no role in theories predicated on mechanistic (if sometimes biased) responses to external circumstances. Likewise my narrative-mode reasoning (as Jerome Bruner calls it) about one-offs horrified enforcers of logico-scientific methods designed to analyze recurring events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, mapping one-offs also requires a system of latitudes, longitudes, and elevations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frank Knight\u2019s century-old construct of uncertainty has long provided the coordinates for my maps. Starting in the early 1990s, I used it to analyze many specific cases and issues, especially in entrepreneurship and finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This did now, however, make my case-based research more academically respectable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2000, I made Knightian uncertainty the organizing premise of The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses<\/em>.<\/a> Catchy stories and some summary data attracted attention, but not its Knightian framing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is my final effort. Covering some of the same territory as I did in the Origin <\/em>book, it has a much stronger emphasis on uncertainty including a novel examination of imaginative uncertainty-reducing discourse. (By happenstance, both books coincided with manias \u2013 the Internet in 2000 and now Artificial Intelligence. And although I didn\u2019t write either to challenge the claims underpinning the manias, this book, like its predecessor, implicitly does just that: it questions the value of statistical models in reproducing or predicting what human imaginations create.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Flap Copy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U<\/strong>ncertainty \u2013 doubt about what is or could be \u2013 fuels our ambitions and fears. Tantalizing possibilities spur us to innovate and explore. Yet, we also strive to reduce uncertainty. Mountain climbers and deep-sea divers plan carefully. Rules, routines, and research in business, the law, and medicine are designed to increase predictability and forestall unpleasant surprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mainstream economics, however, hides from uncertainty, banishing it to the mystical world of unknown unknowns or reducing it to mechanistic calculation. Its textbooks ignore everyday problems that lack demonstrably correct solutions. But resolute responses to such problems require confidence. Where does confidence come from, especially when we go beyond the known? How do we justify our fallible judgments to ourselves and others?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Drawing on more than thirty years of teaching and research, Amar Bhid\u00e9 offers compelling answers. Inspired by \u2013 while modernizing — the forgotten ideas of the economist Frank Knight and other great twentieth-century thinkers, Bhid\u00e9 challenges both hyper-rational economic orthodoxy and claims of pervasive behavioral biases. He shows that while big bets require more justification, the facts alone don\u2019t persuade skeptics. Instead, narratives that combine reason, contextual evidence, and creative interpretations align our imaginations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bhid\u00e9\u2019s framework and rich examples explain neglected and surprising features of entrepreneurship. He shows how startups and giant corporations coexist; how seemingly bureaucratic procedures encourage the giants to undertake complex high-stakes initiatives; and, how vividly described possibilities help make the imagined real. Cutting through esoteric theories \u2013 but avoiding glib prescriptions — Uncertainty and Enterprise <\/em>examines the foundations of bold yet reasonable action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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AMAR BHID\u00c9 is a Professor at Columbia University\u2019s Mailman School of Public Health and Professor Emeritus at Tufts University\u2019s Fletcher School. He has served on the business school faculties of Harvard, Chicago, and Columbia universities and was a founding editor of Capitalism and Society. Bhid\u00e9 has written numerous articles for the Harvard Business Review<\/em>, The Wall Street Journal<\/em>, The New York Times<\/em>, and the Financial Times<\/em>. Author of The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses<\/em> and The Venturesome Economy<\/em>, Bhid\u00e9 was educated at the Indian Institute of Technology and Harvard Business School, where
he graduated as a Baker scholar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Table of Contents<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Preface<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PART I: INVITATION TO THE VOYAGE<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

  1. The Offering<\/a>
  2. Uncertainty as Doubt
  3. Conjectures about Justification
  4. Applications to Enterprise<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PART II: FORMIDABLE OBSTACLES, FORGOTTEN BEACONS<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

5. Frank Knight: The Spark That Did Not Ignite<\/a>
 6. Practically Omniscient Microeconomics
 7. Imperfect Market Theories: Realism without Fallibility
 8. John Maynard Keynes: Help to Distraction
9. Herbert Simon: Faded Guiding Star
10. Daniel Ellsberg\u2019s Ambiguity: A Simplifying Side Trip
11. Kahneman and Tversky: Gaining Acceptance, Dropping Uncertainty       
12. Richard Thaler & Co.: Building the New Behavioral Boomtowns<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PART III: THE SPECIALIZATION OF ENTERPRISE<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

 13. Including Uncertainty: Recapitulation and Preview<\/a>
 14. \u201cBootstrapping\u201d Improvised Startups
 15. Calculating Capitalists: VCs and Angel Investors
 16. The Evolution of Dynamic Bureaucracies
 17. The Dominions of Giants<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PART IV: IMAGINATIVE DISCOURSE<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

 18. The Aims of Discourse<\/a>
 19 The Devices of Discourse
 20. Stories as Side Dishes
 21. Spillovers from Popular Stories<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PART V: CODA<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

 22. The Case for Widening<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Advance Comments and Reviews<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn Uncertainty and Enterprise, Amar Bhid\u00e9 reminds us of the importance of complexity and context in understanding human action. His wide-ranging insights connect contemporary events to timeless themes in a way that is both fresh and engaging.\u201d \u2014Sir Tim Besley, Professor of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science

\u201cAn important book and a wonderful guide for flourishing in a rapidly changing world. Amar Bhid\u00e9 illustrates how our destiny doesn\u2019t have to be controlled by authoritarian governments or impersonal scientific forces. We can shape our future, by holding true to our hallowed democratic traditions and honoring our best selves.\u201d \u2014Bill Bradley, US Senator, 1979\u20131997<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u201cUncertainty has long been a source of puzzlement\u2014seen by some as central to economic life even as it remains frustratingly difficult to define or analyze. Amar Bhid\u00e9 cuts through this confusion, providing a lucid journey through both the history of the concept and its ongoing commercial implications. The story he tells is provocative, humane, and always illuminating. Uncertainty and Enterprise will be a definitive resource for anyone
who seeks to understand a big question that yields no easy answers.\u201d \u2014Angus Burgin, Associate Professor of History, Johns Hopkins University<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u201cA compelling argument for recognizing uncertainty as a key factor in economic analyses, and how to build it into our strategies. This is a magisterial synthesis of forgotten theories, and a persuasive appeal for reform in the economics profession. It offers thought-provoking insights for anyone seeking to navigate our turbulent times.\u201d\u2014Gillian Tett, Provost, King\u2019s College, University of Cambridge, and Columnist, Financial Times<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“[Frank] Knight has been forgotten or misconstrued repeatedly over the past century. A new book by the scholar Amar Bhid\u00e9 brings back his original insights and dares to try to improve upon them – mostly by extending them into realms that Knight didn’t consider, such as the persuasive techniques that entrepreneurs use to overcome the uncertainty felt by investors, customers and partners.” — Peter Coy, The New York Times<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“A work of breathtaking breadth…A deep understanding of the concepts is intertwined with personal details of some of the colorful key personas such as Knight, Keynes, Savage, Ellsberg, Simon, and Kahneman\/Tversky. The story is wonderfully curated and Bhide is not afraid to give his own views on what works and what has turned out to be fruitless expeditions to barren landscapes…. I can think of no better overview of the concept of uncertainty.” — Richard Friberg, Jacob Wallenberg Professor, Stockholm School of Economics (Critical Review)<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“[Bhid\u00e9] offers a fascinating array of stories, examples and ideas of great thinkers-some well-known, like John Maynard Keynes, others more obscure, like the economist Frank H. Knight-rather than relying solely on math or statistics. This book provides a new way of looking not only at risk but, more importantly, at uncertainty in an unpredictable world.” — Elaine Chao, The Wall Street Journal<\/em> (What We Read)<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Mr. Bhid\u00e9’s thorough knowledge of case studies in entrepreneurship gives flesh and blood to [his] insight… Uncertainty and Enterprise shows how the need to manage uncertainty shapes the functions and structures of enterprises, the process of innovation and the skill sets of entrepreneurs. At a time when artificial intelligence and computational power are reshaping the world, it also points reassuringly to the importance of the uniquely human imaginative faculty. — Charles W. Calomiris, The Wall Street Journal<\/em>. Book Review<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Over a long career, Bhid\u00e9, now at Columbia University\u2019s Mailman School of Public Health, has focused on uncertainty and enterprise. But his aims are not metaphysical, but rather practical: \u201cI aim to stimulate inquiry into neglected questions about the role of uncertainty in human affairs and improve our understanding of how to manage it. I do not offer grand theories or manifestos. Instead I propose some conjectures about the justification of imagined choices illustrated by applications in entrepreneurship.\u201d The results of this inquiry are fascinating.” — Martin Wolf (Financial Times<\/em>)., Best summer books of 2025: Economics<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Podcasts and Talks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Talk at Kansas City Public Library<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interview with Martin Reeves (Boston Consulting Group)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Harvard Business School Alumni Stories<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

McKinsey Author Talks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conversation with Guy Spier<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Book with legs interview with Cole Smead (Smead Capital)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“UnSILOed” Chat with Greg LaBlanc<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Tunney, Economics Explored<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paul Miller Show (Brief radio interview)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

School for Startups<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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