{"id":846,"date":"2020-03-25T02:11:35","date_gmt":"2020-03-25T06:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bhide.net\/?p=846"},"modified":"2020-04-16T16:58:20","modified_gmt":"2020-04-16T20:58:20","slug":"murky-data-calls-into-question-quarantine-strategy-new-ft-oped","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/murky-data-calls-into-question-quarantine-strategy-new-ft-oped\/","title":{"rendered":"Murky data calls into question quarantine strategy (New FT oped)"},"content":{"rendered":"
My oped on covid 19 that the FT has just kindly published<\/a>, emphasizes we are operating in a fog — of irreducible, radical uncertainty. As Mervyn King wisely put it. <\/a>” \u201cNo one can really know the nature of this virus.\u201d<\/div>\n
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Six years of studying medical advances<\/a> — Im going to be teaching a new course<\/a> on this at HBS next year — convince me there is no techno magic that will clarify.\u00a0 Reliable, large scale screening is a Theranos like fantasy: its not just the “upstream” scientific breakthroughs that are a bottleneck — there is a long “downstream” chain — of producing tests, distributing them,\u00a0 training operators to administer them and physicians to interpret them that are at least as great a constraint.<\/div>\n
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(There is a reason the CDC recommends against routine laboratory testing for flu diagnosis — even though the tests and protocols are well established.)<\/div>\n
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And without tests, uncertainty about infection and death rates — and efficacy of containment choices is unavoidable.<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
Our best guess\/guide at this point I think is the 2009 swine flu pandemic. Covid could be better. it could be worse. But i dont see any reason for doing more than was done in 2009. This certainly wasn’t nothing — but it didnt involve fnearly global lock-downs and immediate large-scale, harm to people’s livelihoods. And with no exit plans or criteria even.<\/span><\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
Some can afford extended sheltering in place.\u00a0 A great many cannot.
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My oped on covid 19 that the FT has just kindly published, emphasizes we are operating in a fog —<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[31,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health-blog","category-public-policy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=846"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":908,"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/846\/revisions\/908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhide.net\/wordpress_files\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}