Fearless forecast the next wave (of Covid controversy)
In a couple of years or so when the dust settles on covid attributed deaths — and yes they are most definitely attributions — there will of course be difference in per capita deaths between Western countries (and between US states), as would happen with any disease.
Im guessing that
1. Age and co-morbidities will easily account for much of the differences. e.g, countries with older populations and more COPD patients will have more deaths.
2. Small differences that remain will attract great controversy about the efficacy of quarantines, masks, testing and other public health interventions.
3. Both sides will deploy formidable econometric weaponry but to no conclusive avail.
Im also guessing that total deaths will not be materially different from swine-flu and SARS infection deaths — which did not attract this full-on global shut down. (There may very well be more differences in specific occupations.)
These are all of course guesses, but if someone wants to take the other side — and can figure out a reliable way to specify outcomes — Id be willing to bet on my hunches.